Energy for sustainable growth

Energy for sustainable growth
By Francis Matthew, Editor at Large Published: September 19, 2007, 23:21

The Gulf states' profligate use of energy will have to stop if plans for larger populations and expanded economies are going to work.

Their energy reserves are some of the largest in the world, but they are not infinite, and they will certainly not support the planned growth for ever. Even if growth eventually slows to a more stable total population, the region will be much larger than at present and will finish its reserves rapidly.

The planned scale of growth is awe inspiring. The population of the Arabian Peninsula is set to double from the present 59 million in 2007 to reach 124 million by 2050, according to the Population Reference Bureau's June 2007 Bulletin.

This will be a combination of natural growth from the national populations, as well as continuing immigration from expatriates into the region.

This massive increase will have to be matched by very careful planning of water and power resources. Till now most Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have not done well at this since growth so far has not seriously challenged their capacity to produce energy for domestic and industrial use.

All the governments have had to do is turn the taps on a bit more and they have kept pace. This cannot continue.

It is true that water has been a topic of government concern for the last decade, mainly due to the warnings sounded by the failure of traditional artesian wells which forced governments to plan alternatives and thus raised the whole question of actively planning how to allocate water resources to meet demand across the whole economy.

But this planning has remained at government level, with most solutions revolving around increased use of recycled water, and increasing desalination capacity. But wider awareness of the importance of water conservation has not happened and the population at large remains uncaring.

This is dangerous since the supply of new water depends on desalination, which uses a lot of gas to boil the sea water. All electricity in the GCC comes from generating stations which also use gas.

Both the supply of water and electricity ultimately depend on the same resource, which is gas, and as with all hydrocarbons, gas supplies are ultimately limited. They may be around for some decades or even centuries in a few areas, but they will eventually be used up.

It is startling how much the region's future plans are linked to continued and plentiful gas supplies. There is a major long term crisis in the making unless steps are taken today to address how to conserve this large but ultimately limited resource, and the answers lie in both supply and demand.

On the demand side, it lies with all authorities to enforce more rigorous standards in all spheres of life. For example it should be mandatory that new buildings meet tough energy standards.

For example, all the glass walls we see around us require large air conditioning units on the roofs of buildings, chewing up vast amounts of energy.

On the supply side, it is important that all GCC states develop effective national power grids, and link them in a future GCC grid. This involves commitment from all governments, and it also means developing a pricing mechanism within the grid so that the power hungry parts of the GCC are able to buy power from the resource rich countries.

Any pricing mechanism will have to take into account the subsidies that most GCC governments continue to offer their populations, since very few individuals or companies are able to bear the true commercial cost of a unit a power.

Power grid

Unfortunately the GCC has not been able to implement its plans for a GCC power grid, but it is exactly the kind of project that the GCC should be able to manage. It is largely technical in nature, focusing on infrastructure, and the benefits are overwhelming. All that is required is some political commitment to achieve a solution to the pricing issue.

But there another important supply of power which the GCC states have to take more seriously. It is ridiculous that in an area which has so much sun, there is so little solar energy.

For example, all buildings should have solar panels on their flat roofs, all new projects should have their solar farms, and solar energy should become part of every planner and government official's thinking.

The absence of solar energy in the GCC cannot remain a matter of concern to a few environmentalist lobbies. It has to become part of mainstream government thinking, otherwise the 54 million people due to be living in the region in 40 years time will not have enough power or water to keep going.

The continued success of the GCC states depends on getting this right.